The Rise of Malaria and upper Respiratory Tract Infections during the El Nino Season Using Logistics Regression Analysis and Bayes Theorem
AbstractMalaria and URTI’S are known to be caused by different factors that range from environmental patterns to immunity of individuals. The prevalence of these two diseases usually increase from time to time due to situations such as lack of medical care, poor living standards and many other related factors. The abnormal increase of cases for such diseases can be caused by abnormal weather conditions like a rapid increase in precipitation. In this study, a scientific approach was employed in defining the epidemic of malaria and URTI’S by the use of effect size measures and probability models. This was based on the fact that there was a prediction of the El Nino condition by the meteorological department of Kenya and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in America that was to affect the east African region between October 2015 to early 2016. The objective of this project was in line with the strategy of WHO/IDSR launched since 1998 and that is to provide a logistics probability model that investigates on the epidemics of URTI’s and Malaria occurring during the El Niño season. The project was conducted in Maasai Mara University; Narok using secondary data from the University health unit and it encompassed the number of Malaria and URTI cases reported during the year 2015. The incorporation of Bayesian analysis was reasonable to provide a clear picture of the effects of El Nino in the health sector and the remedies available.
Ackoff, Russell L, (1961): The Design of Social Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1961.
Anderson R & May M .Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1991.
Alunn L & Steve V, (2005). Network Models in Epidemiology: An Overview. 18:38, September 11, 2005.
Ankur R, Vineet S, Sonu K, (2013): Upper Respiratory Tract Infections: An Overview, International Journal of Current Pharmaceutical Research-5(3), 16 June 2013.
Anthony K. Mbonye, (2004): Risk Factors for Diarrhea and Upper Respiratory Tract Infections among Children in a Rural Area of Uganda Centre for Health and Population Research -22(1):52-58, 28 March 2004.
Cooper R, Hoffman J & Bartlett J, (2001): Principles of appropriate antibiotic use for acute pharyngitis in adults: Background. Ann Intern Med 2001; 134: 509-517.
Glantz M (1996a) Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Hartmann M (2009). Demographic Methods for the Statistical Office. Methodology reports 2009:2, Statistics Sweden, Research and Development Department.
Hay S, Snow R, and Rogers D, (1998): From predicting mosquito habitat to malaria seasons using remotely sensed data - practice, problems and perspectives. Parasitol Today 1998, 14:306-313.
Kebede S, Duale S, Yokouide A & Alemu W, (2010). Trends of major disease outbreaks in the African region, 2003-2007. Public Health Journal [Online Serial], 7(1) 1st March 2010.
Kongoti G, Advisory on Development of El-Nino-2(2), 22 September 2015.
Kothari C (ed.), (2004): Research Methodology methods and techniques. Jaipur, India: New Age International Publishers.
Mandal S, Sarkar R and Sinha S, (2011). Mathematical Models of Malaria: A Review. Malaria Journal, 10:202, 10th January 2012.
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)-Acute Communicable Disease Control Manual (B-73) REVISION—FEBRUARY 2012.
Parham P & Michael E, (2011): Outbreak properties of epidemic models: The roles of temporal forcing and stochasticity on pathogen invasion dynamics. J Theor Biol 2011, 271:1-9.
Poole M & Portugal L, (2005). Treatment of rhino sinusitis in the outpatient setting. Am J Med 2005, 118: 45S-50S.
The World Health Organization (WHO) report 2014.
Young V, (1960). Scientific Social Surveys and Research, 3rd ed., New York: Prentice-Hall, 1960.
Authors who submit papers with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
- By submitting the processing fee, it is understood that the author has agreed to our terms and conditions which may change from time to time without any notice.
- It should be clear for authors that the Editor In Chief is responsible for the final decision about the submitted papers; have the right to accept\reject any paper. The Editor In Chief will choose any option from the following to review the submitted papers:A. send the paper to two reviewers, if the results were negative by one reviewer and positive by the other one; then the editor may send the paper for third reviewer or he take immediately the final decision by accepting\rejecting the paper. The Editor In Chief will ask the selected reviewers to present the results within 7 working days, if they were unable to complete the review within the agreed period then the editor have the right to resend the papers for new reviewers using the same procedure. If the Editor In Chief was not able to find suitable reviewers for certain papers then he have the right to accept\reject the paper.B. sends the paper to a selected editorial board member(s). C. the Editor In Chief himself evaluates the paper.
- Author will take the responsibility what so ever if any copyright infringement or any other violation of any law is done by publishing the research work by the author
- Before publishing, author must check whether this journal is accepted by his employer, or any authority he intends to submit his research work. we will not be responsible in this matter.
- If at any time, due to any legal reason, if the journal stops accepting manuscripts or could not publish already accepted manuscripts, we will have the right to cancel all or any one of the manuscripts without any compensation or returning back any kind of processing cost.
- The cost covered in the publication fees is only for online publication of a single manuscript.