Maximum Temperature Forecast Using NWP Output and Station Data in Equatorial Region: Preliminary Result for West Java, Indonesia
Keywords:
statistical downscaling, numerical weather prediction, single value decomposition, partial least square regression, principle component regression.Abstract
Model Output Statistics (MOS) is one of the statistical downscaling methods in post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output to get weather forecasts at a point of observation stations. The problem in MOS is how to determine the spatial domain of NWP to be used as predictor in the development stage. This paper uses methods for determining the optimal NWP spatial domain and to predict maximum temperature in the Jabodetabek area using NWP output from Global Forecast System (GFS) generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
References
Glahn HR, Lowry DA. 1972. The use of model output statistics (MOS) in Objectives Weather Forecasting. Journal of Applied Meteorology 11:1203-1211.
Baker K. 2005. Singular Value Decomposition Tutorial [Internet] [downloaded 4 September 2012] Site: http://amsglossary. allenpress.com /glossary/.
Federico S. 2011. Verification of minimum temperature, mean, and maximum temperature forecast in Caribia for summer 2008. Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences Copernicus Publications 11:487-500.
Maini P, Kumar A, Rathore LS, Singh SV. 2003. Forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures by statistical interpretation of numerical weather prediction model output. Journal of Weather and Forecasting 18:938-952.
Marzban C, Sandgathe S, and Kalnay E. 2006. MOS, Perfect Prog, and Reanalysis. Monthly Weather Review 134:657-663.
Sutikno, 2008. Statistical downscaling luaran GCM dan pemanfaatannya untuk peramalam produksi padi. Disertasi S-3 IPB.
Termonia P and Deckmyn A. 2007. Model-inspired predictors for Model Output Statistics (MOS). Monthly Weather Review 135:3496-3505.
Wigena AH. 2006. Pemodelan statistical downscaling dengan regresi projection pursuit untuk peramalan curah hujan bulanan. Disertasi, Sekolah Pasca Sarjana. Institut Pertanian Bogor.
Wigena AH and Djuaridah A. 2009. Pendekatan Regresi Kuadrat Terkecil Parsial Robust dalam Model Kalibrasi. Forum Statistika dan Komputasi 14(1):34-41.
Wigena, A. H., 2011. Regresi Kuadrat Terkecil Parsial multirespon untuk statistical Downscaling (Multi Response Partial Least Square for Statistical Downscaling). Forum Statistika dan Komputasi .16( 2):
Wilks DS. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, An Introduction. Academic Press Inc. New York.
Wilks, D. S., Hamill, T. M., 2007. Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods using GFS reforecasts. Monthly Weather Review. 135(6): 2379-2390
[WMO] Word Meteorological Organization. 1999. Method of Interpreting Numerical Weather Prediction Output for Aeronautical Meteorology. Technical Note No. 195, WMO-No 770, Secretariat WMO, Geneva, Switzerland.
[WMO] Word Meteorological Organization. 2000. Guideline on Performance Assessment of Public Weather Service. WMO/TD 1-23, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Yuval, Hsieh WW. 2003. An adaptive nonlinear MOS scheme for precipitation forecast using neural network. Weather and Forecasting 18:303-310.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who submit papers with this journal agree to the following terms.